Utilities that run coal, natural gas, and oil power plants can control production and predict future revenue. For wind farms, however, business planning presents a challenge. A wind farm’s production changes based on local wind speeds, making forecasts much less reliable.
To generate accurate revenue forecasts and revenue-at-risk projections, EDP Renewables North America (formerly Horizon Wind Energy) combines production estimates for all wind farms in its portfolio with forecasts of power prices on the futures market. Using MATLAB®, EDPR analysts developed an automated risk-forecasting system that factors in historical data, current prices, and forward-looking estimates from expert analysts.
“Because our team already knew MATLAB, we did not need a programmer. Instead, our structuring and market operations analysts, who already had the necessary experience in mathematics and economics, developed the system directly, which is a much more efficient process,” says Manuel Arancibia, market operations manager at EDPR. “MATLAB enabled these analysts to build a reliable, scalable forecasting and analysis solution from scratch.”