How can I estimate the probabiltiy of intraday price movements?

I have a yearly data set of minute by minute price data, totaling around 575k prices. I filtered this data to adjust for trading day only and created 24-hours bins.

Ultimately, I would like to use matlab to estimate the probability of an x% change in the price between the bins. That is, what is the likelihood of an X% move given the time interval throughout the day. For example, if the price of the asset is X at 23:00 what is the probability it changes to Y in the next hour.

I am new to matlab and I was what is the best approach to estimate these probabilities.

Answer 1

[Shashank Prasanna]

Looks like you may be interested in Transition Probabilities, but I may be wrong.

http://www.mathworks.com/help/finance/transition-probabilities.html

There are example on the probability of change in a bond rating over time and you may be looking for similar analysis on intraday prices which you may want to bin.